Author: Daniel Steedman
Four months after the federal election took place Germany is on the cusp of forming a new grand coalition government. After a period of intense discussion the Christian Democrat Union (CDU), it’s Bavarian conservative relative the Christian Socialist Union (CSU) and the opposing Social Democrat Party (SPD) have agreed to a draft agreement to form a coalition government. In days the matter is expected to be formally decided.
A grand coalition is not new to German politics but on this occasion the circumstances are different. In this case, it has been made necessary by the election of the far right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD). This marks an important change in the German political landscape. It is the first clear sign of the political discord the AfD brings to Berlin. It will not be the last.
What caused the grand coalition?
German grand coalitions are nothing new. The have occurred in the past when the CDU and SPD joined to form government. The two parties are the largest and the most dominant in the German political system. They also oppose each other. The CDU being centre right and the SPD being centre left.
When either wins an insufficient number of seats to govern in their own right they seek a partnership to effectively make up the required number. For example, the SPD partnered with the Greens under Chancellor Gerhard Schröder in 1998 to form a government. The CDU partnered with the SPD in 2006 under Chancellor Angela Merkel in a grand coalition.
In the 2017 elections Merkel’s CDU won 33% and the SPD, under Martin Schultz, won 20.5% of the vote. The CDU lacked the numbers to win a majority of the vote and form government. It needs a partner, which it has not yet found, to make up the numbers. However the picture is more complicated than numbers alone. Immigration policy and a nationalist sentiment in parts of the electorate are influencing political allegiances. The CDU has been wary of being dragged too far to the right.
This is an important reason for the formation of another CDU/SPD grand coalition. In the case of the 2017 election the CDU has no desire to join with far right parties such as the AfD. Hence the likelihood of another grand coalition with the SPD. Even so, it should be noted that the Bavarian CSU, with a more conservative agenda, does pull on the CDU centre right position at times. Merkel, resisting this, is aware that a stable centrist government is in Germany’s interest.
The SPD party congress will vote on whether or not to accept the terms of the proposed grand coalition government on January 21. This will be a pivotal decision. Not only for Germany but also for the integrity of the European Union which, according to French President Macron, needs a strong and united German government.
The critical issue for Germany is that this grand coalition has been made necessary by the election of a far right party. This has upset the traditionally stable dynamic of post-war German politics. The AfD is now an important actor on the political stage. It is evident that the policies of the far right are now influencing German politics just as they do in many other parts of Europe.
The AfD and a step to the right
Clearly the arrival of the AfD in the Bundestag ushers in a new era of German politics. It won 12.5% percent and is now the third biggest party in the Bundestag on the back of a far right platform not seen in Germany for over 70 years. The 2017 election marks the first time that post-war Germany has seen a right wing party enter parliament.
Although the rise of the AfD has been relatively quick it is not unexpected. In the 2013 election they won only 4.7% of the vote, an insufficient number to enter parliament. But things changed markedly between 2013 and 2017 as refugees from flooded in to the European Union. In Germany this proved a decisive factor for the growing support of the AfD.
Support for the AfD is connected directly to the issues of immigration and anti-Islamic sentiment. This mirrors political developments in many other parts of Europe. Remember, these were important themes in Britain, France and the United States. They produced unexpected electoral results. Germany has proven to be no different and the AfD has capitalised accordingly.
Arguably the most important issue behind the ascendance of the AfD, and support for the far right more generally, was Merkel’s controversial 2015 decision to let some one million refugees into Germany. Merkel herself acknowledged this decision was largely her own. The decision was as divisive in her own party as it was across Germany. Many pundits predicted she was finished.
This set off a divisive debate in Germany. It added fuel to the fire of rising nationalist sentiment seeping into Europe. The AfD capitalised. Merkel’s decision provided the launching pad the AfD needed to garner much wider support.
Elements of the right are firmly in control of politics in Poland, Hungary and now Austria. The AfD is motivated to influence German politics in a similar manner. With the introduction of their first bill into Germany’s parliament squarely aimed at an immigration issue the AfD has shown politics is Germany has changed.
What can be concluded?
German politics has long been held up as a bastion of stability. Today it appears to be following the pattern of many other nations in Europe that have witnessed the impact of right wing populism. Merkel, pending the outcome of the SPD vote on January 21, will soon have a grand coalition government in place. However the AfD will challenge long held societal and political norms in Germany. Chief among them a pro-immigration stance, religious freedom and ethnic diversity.
Germany’s political stability in the past months without a fully formed government is testament to the strength of its institutions. Many countries in similar circumstances would teeter on the edge of chaos. But Germany is relying on a stable grand coalition being formed. So too is the European Union.
Nevertheless, with the AfD firmly entrenched in the Bundestag the German political landscape in undergoing its biggest political shift since reunification and possibly since 1945. Where Germany goes from here, and what the AfD means remains for its politics, remains to be seen.
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