This analysis, written for the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, examines how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine significantly erodes the post 1945 world order.
Category: Germany
Germany’s new era!
This analysis considers the new German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and the looks at some of the key policies of, and challenges to, the new government in Berlin. https://lens.monash.edu/@politics-society/2021/12/15/1384261/changing-of-the-guard-germanys-new-era-under-chancellor-scholz
Brexit. The final act?
Image courtesy AFP
Next week the status of the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the EU will become clearer. This final act in the Brexit negotiation process will determine if there will be a Brexit deal or not.
The European Commission will meet on October 15, a deadline set by the United Kingdom’s Prime Minister Boris Johnson, to decide the matter. Still, the outcome remains uncertain. Johnson was clear on September 7, “If we can’t agree by then, then I do not see that there will be a free trade agreement between us, and we should both accept that and move on”.
For the moment, the UK remains a member of the single market and customs union until December 31. Deal or no deal, the UK will be out of the EU at the end of the year.
Whether there is a deal or not, Brexit will present opportunities for some businesses just as it will threaten others. The uncertainty among the business community is ongoing. Businesses that have not moved operations to continental Europe in light of the Brexit referendum in 2016, but remain in the UK, are making noises about being compensated by Downing Street if there is a no deal Brexit.
Politics have always been at the center of Brexit. The process is now further complicated by the social and economic consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic.
So, where do things stand one week out from the October 15 meeting that is set to decide the matter?
Complications, something smells fishy…
Access to fisheries has long been, and remains, a key sticking point. This was emphasised by President Macron of France at the start of the year. Since 2016, this issue alone has been an indicator that these negotiations were never going to be anything other than messy at best.
The essence of the matter is that the EU wants a framework that will allow its fishing vessels, in particular French vessels, ongoing access to British waters. By contrast, Britain sees this as impinging on its sovereign territory. London wants to revise existing arrangements to its advantage. Britain, as it is entitled to do, wants to control the terms of access to its waters.
Similarly, British sovereignty informs the most recent complication. The UK has decided to take a renewed hardline position on Northern Ireland and this is where the latest split has appeared with the EU.
In September the UK Government submitted the United Kingdom Internal Market Bill which flouts the Protocol on Ireland / Northern Ireland. The original agreement with the EU meant that there would be no hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. In effect, Northern Ireland would be part of the EU single market. This does not sit well with Johnson who sees the new Bill as something of a lever. He is angling for additional British gains in the final stages of the withdrawal process.
Westminster’s action contravenes Article 5 of the Withdrawal Agreement between the UK and EU which came into effect on February 1. It is a gambit that has further upset the EU. The EU response has been to issue a legal infringement against the UK. This further sours the chances for a smoother Brexit.
Implications
A no deal Brexit will have a cascade of implications that will only become apparent after the event. It is certain however that Brexit is going to cost businesses and industries time and money. Time, because moving product across the border will take longer as a result of delays through customs checks, clearances and processing. Money, because of tariffs in the short term and the likelihood that it will simply be harder to do business with the UK in the longer term. By this measure, the UK has more to lose than the EU.
As the business community knows all too well, time equals money. Delays are always costly and business likes to operate along paths of least resistance. Especially when there are alternative, more efficient, supply chain options available.
If Britain leaves the EU with no deal it will result in Britain having to trade with the EU under the rules of the World Trade Organisation. This means there will be no favoured status or preferential treatment. It will be made to trade with the EU like any other nation anywhere in the world.
Some experts warn that Brexit will hamper Britain’s ability to form a cohesive foreign policy. Britain played a central role in building the post-1945 liberal world order. This was the foundation that globalisation and freer international trade has been built on. Since the GFC of 2008 however, this system has been under increasing pressure. A diminished Britain will not help revive it.
France’s Secretary of State for European Affairs is warning that the EU is preparing for a no deal scenario. The French, historically staunch defenders of their industries, are being the most vociferous of the EU nations on this point. In Berlin, the message is more subdued but the sentiment is no different. Germany views a no deal scenario as irresponsible and remain open to finding common ground. Nevertheless, it is preparing for a no deal resolution.
A recent press release from Downing Street is pessimistic that any agreement will be reached. It appears that there is little political will to arrive at a workable Brexit solution.
So, what might this portend?
Heading for no deal and more competition?
This obfuscation, and recent brinksmanship on Britain’s side, is all about the politics. Britain is prepared to leave the EU with no deal; as Johnson has frequently said since he became Prime Minister. The European governments want to protect their own businesses and interests. Why make life easier for the British who are responsible for the mess? In the competitive arena of international politics states seek advantage over others. No quarter is given. This is what is happening with the Brexit negotiations.
Unless an agreement can be made on October 15, and assuming there is no last minute reprieve, Britain and the EU will have no agreement in place from December 31. There will be significant and costly repercussions. How businesses ready themselves for a no deal situation, and how sound their strategic planning to cope with such an outcome is, will largely determine the extent to which they impacted.
Pandemics, great power rivalries and political upheaval
An op-ed I wrote for Monash University Lens. As Covid-19 starts to inflict serious economic chaos political chaos will follow. In the past, such conditions have provided fertile ground for nationalism and extreme-right ideologies to flourish. World leaders must set aside their geopolitical competition to co-operate and avoid the pitfalls of the past.
Germany: a grand coalition in a changed political landscape
Author: Daniel Steedman
Four months after the federal election took place Germany is on the cusp of forming a new grand coalition government. After a period of intense discussion the Christian Democrat Union (CDU), it’s Bavarian conservative relative the Christian Socialist Union (CSU) and the opposing Social Democrat Party (SPD) have agreed to a draft agreement to form a coalition government. In days the matter is expected to be formally decided.
A grand coalition is not new to German politics but on this occasion the circumstances are different. In this case, it has been made necessary by the election of the far right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD). This marks an important change in the German political landscape. It is the first clear sign of the political discord the AfD brings to Berlin. It will not be the last.
What caused the grand coalition?
German grand coalitions are nothing new. The have occurred in the past when the CDU and SPD joined to form government. The two parties are the largest and the most dominant in the German political system. They also oppose each other. The CDU being centre right and the SPD being centre left.
When either wins an insufficient number of seats to govern in their own right they seek a partnership to effectively make up the required number. For example, the SPD partnered with the Greens under Chancellor Gerhard Schröder in 1998 to form a government. The CDU partnered with the SPD in 2006 under Chancellor Angela Merkel in a grand coalition.
In the 2017 elections Merkel’s CDU won 33% and the SPD, under Martin Schultz, won 20.5% of the vote. The CDU lacked the numbers to win a majority of the vote and form government. It needs a partner, which it has not yet found, to make up the numbers. However the picture is more complicated than numbers alone. Immigration policy and a nationalist sentiment in parts of the electorate are influencing political allegiances. The CDU has been wary of being dragged too far to the right.
This is an important reason for the formation of another CDU/SPD grand coalition. In the case of the 2017 election the CDU has no desire to join with far right parties such as the AfD. Hence the likelihood of another grand coalition with the SPD. Even so, it should be noted that the Bavarian CSU, with a more conservative agenda, does pull on the CDU centre right position at times. Merkel, resisting this, is aware that a stable centrist government is in Germany’s interest.
The SPD party congress will vote on whether or not to accept the terms of the proposed grand coalition government on January 21. This will be a pivotal decision. Not only for Germany but also for the integrity of the European Union which, according to French President Macron, needs a strong and united German government.
The critical issue for Germany is that this grand coalition has been made necessary by the election of a far right party. This has upset the traditionally stable dynamic of post-war German politics. The AfD is now an important actor on the political stage. It is evident that the policies of the far right are now influencing German politics just as they do in many other parts of Europe.
The AfD and a step to the right
Clearly the arrival of the AfD in the Bundestag ushers in a new era of German politics. It won 12.5% percent and is now the third biggest party in the Bundestag on the back of a far right platform not seen in Germany for over 70 years. The 2017 election marks the first time that post-war Germany has seen a right wing party enter parliament.
Although the rise of the AfD has been relatively quick it is not unexpected. In the 2013 election they won only 4.7% of the vote, an insufficient number to enter parliament. But things changed markedly between 2013 and 2017 as refugees from flooded in to the European Union. In Germany this proved a decisive factor for the growing support of the AfD.
Support for the AfD is connected directly to the issues of immigration and anti-Islamic sentiment. This mirrors political developments in many other parts of Europe. Remember, these were important themes in Britain, France and the United States. They produced unexpected electoral results. Germany has proven to be no different and the AfD has capitalised accordingly.
Arguably the most important issue behind the ascendance of the AfD, and support for the far right more generally, was Merkel’s controversial 2015 decision to let some one million refugees into Germany. Merkel herself acknowledged this decision was largely her own. The decision was as divisive in her own party as it was across Germany. Many pundits predicted she was finished.
This set off a divisive debate in Germany. It added fuel to the fire of rising nationalist sentiment seeping into Europe. The AfD capitalised. Merkel’s decision provided the launching pad the AfD needed to garner much wider support.
Elements of the right are firmly in control of politics in Poland, Hungary and now Austria. The AfD is motivated to influence German politics in a similar manner. With the introduction of their first bill into Germany’s parliament squarely aimed at an immigration issue the AfD has shown politics is Germany has changed.
What can be concluded?
German politics has long been held up as a bastion of stability. Today it appears to be following the pattern of many other nations in Europe that have witnessed the impact of right wing populism. Merkel, pending the outcome of the SPD vote on January 21, will soon have a grand coalition government in place. However the AfD will challenge long held societal and political norms in Germany. Chief among them a pro-immigration stance, religious freedom and ethnic diversity.
Germany’s political stability in the past months without a fully formed government is testament to the strength of its institutions. Many countries in similar circumstances would teeter on the edge of chaos. But Germany is relying on a stable grand coalition being formed. So too is the European Union.
Nevertheless, with the AfD firmly entrenched in the Bundestag the German political landscape in undergoing its biggest political shift since reunification and possibly since 1945. Where Germany goes from here, and what the AfD means remains for its politics, remains to be seen.
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